Thursday, November 25, 2004
Linked from Mathew Gross
America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''
America's record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling.
U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded.
America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.
Household debt is at record levels.
Americans are already spending a record share of disposable income paying their interest bills.
The dollar is hitting fresh lows against currencies from the yen to the euro.
Parachute failed to open over the weekend, when a meeting of the world's top finance ministers produced no promise of concerted intervention.
A ``spectacular wave of bankruptcies'' is possible.
America is living in a ``debt bubble'' of record proportions.
-Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley [Boston Herald]
Mortgage Lending Down in Third Quarter
Perhaps you have the belief that the housing sector continues a multi-year boom. Prices are continuing to soar, with Las Vegas climbing more than any metro area ever. So I wonder why there hasn't been much talk of a big drop in loans originated in the through the third quarter of 2004 when compared to the same point in the previous year. The top four lenders have seen drops of 42%, 46%, 25% and 38% respectively. [Hot Break]
This is your freedom on paper money.